SY021-0010
Changes in Climatic Yield Potential of Japonica-type rice in the Korean Peninsula under RCP scenarios using multi-GCM and multi-RCM Ensemble

Wednesday, 9 December 2020
Poster
Young Hyun Kim1, Joong-bae Ahn1, Kyo-Moon Shim2, Myoung-Seok Suh3, Dong-Hyun Cha4, Dong-Kyou Lee5, Song-You Hong6, Seung-Ki Min7, Hyun-Suk Kang8 and Seong-Chan Park8, (1)Pusan National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Wanju, South Korea, (3)Kongju National University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Gongju, Korea, Republic of (South), (4)Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Korea, Republic of (South), (5)Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea, (6)KIAPS Korea Insititute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (7)POSTECH, Pohang, Korea, Republic of (South), (8)Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea
Abstract:
In this study, changes in rice productions in the Korean Peninsula (KP) are analyzed in terms of the climatic yield potential (CYP) index for Japonica-type rice. In order to reduce uncertainties that might be induced by using the chain of a single Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) and a single Regional Climate Model (RCM) with dynamical downscaling, two CGCMs - three RCMs chain is used to calculate CYP index for present (1981-2010) and near future (2021-2050) climates under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In the near future, the area-averaged rice productions decrease during the heading date period in the KP, although the possible period of rice ripening is extended. The optimum heading date is later by about 12 days (based on Multi Model Ensemble) and the maximum CYP index is larger than present climate. Therefore, if the heading date is selected based on the optimum heading date of future (present) climate, the rice production is projected to increase (decrease). The mean rice production during the period of ripening is projected to decrease (to about 95% (RCP4.5) and 93% (RCP8.5) of the Historical) in the western and southern regions of the KP, but to increase (to about 104% (RCP4.5) and 106% (RCP8.5) of the Historical) in the northeastern coastal regions of the KP. However, if the optimum heading date is selected in the near future climate, the peak rice production is projected to increase (to about 105% (RCP4.5) and 104% (RCP8.5) of the Historical) in the western, southern and northeastern coastal regions of the KP, but to decrease (to about 98%(RCP4.5) and 96%(RCP8.5) of the Historical) in the southeastern coastal regions of the KP.

Acknowledgements

This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ01489102)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

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