A067-0001
Assessing the recent impact of COVID-19 on carbon emissions from China using domestic economic data

Wednesday, 9 December 2020
Poster
Pengfei Han, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Beijing, China, Qixiang Cai, Insititute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, Ning Zeng, University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, United States, Tomohiro Oda, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, MD, United States, Xiaohui Lin, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Beijing, China, Di Liu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China and Yuli Shan, University of Groningenx, Groningen, Netherlands
Abstract:
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has significantly reduced gross domestic product (GDP), power consumption, industry activity and transport flow, and thus decreased the fossil-related CO2 emissions in China. Due to time delays in obtaining energy activity data, traditional inventories generally lag real time by 2-3 years. However, a timely assessment of impact from COVID-19 on provincial CO2 emission reductions is crucial for both understanding the reduction and its implications for mitigation. Here, we used national and provincial GDP, traffic statistic data and the CEADs inventory to estimate the reductions in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020. We show that over 2019 Q1, a reduction of -11.0% was found in 2020 Q1 (with secondary industry contributed 72.5%), due largely to lower coal consumptions and cement production reductions. At the provincial level, Hubei contributed the most to reductions. Furthermore, we also used a point, line and area sources method to validate the GDP in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which produced a close estimate of -10.6% reductions. By simply extrapolating the current rate to July and December, the reduction could range from -4.8% ~ -9.1% for the full year. Moreover, GDP is found to have potential merit for estimating emissions changes when detailed energy activity data are unavailable. One implication for mitigation is changing people’s working style and recommending working from home, and holding virtual conferences to reduce emissions.
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