The Cost of Adaption to Climate Change and Economic Optimization for Water Management in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Abstract:

The anthropogenic global warming has posed a significant threat to the land-surface hydrological cycle, which could be permanently harmful for the water supply and demand balance. With rapid urbanization and growing population, water shortages have become a key ecological concern in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which calls for more rational and effective forms of water management, water infrastructure treatment, water distribution among water users. This paper presents a new methodology for the socioeconomic cost assessment of water system adapted to climate change. The model is composed of water supply modelling component (WSM), transport modelling component (WTM) and demand modelling component (WDM). The WSM is a comprehensive and systematic method for predicting the amount of available water resources (surface water and groundwater) and estimating the future trends in climate change. Based on the World Bank study that the costs of adapting to climate change for infrastructure over the period from 2010 to 2050, the WTM considers the construction and maintenance of the water system infrastructure. The WDM consists of economic objective functions optimizing a monthly allocation schedule on an annual basis in terms of maximum net economic benefit through comparing the GDP per unit water consumption in the five main water sectors (industry, agriculture, commerce, construction, and living). The model is applied to determine the socioeconomic cost of water system and highlight an economic optimal path of water allocation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. We can find a predominantly positive relationship between water demand and the warming climate in our study area with the corresponding water shortage went up sharply. And it was urgent to seek improvement in water treatment and wastewater recycling.

Key words: Climate Change; Water system; Cost Assessment; Economic Optimization