The D-MOSS Dengue Fever Forecasting System

Abstract:

Dengue fever now occurs in 141 countries and it is estimated that half of the world’s population are now at risk from the disease. 122,000 cases were reported in Vietnam in 2016 and this was followed by major outbreaks in 2017 and 2019 across the whole of South East Asia. Studies have emphasised significant links between climate variability and infectious diseases such as dengue fever, highlighting the potential for the development of modelling systems with the capability of predicting the probability of disease outbreaks several months in advance, and therefore helping health agencies and practitioners to target actions to manage and prevent outbreaks.

A new Dengue Forecasting Model Satellite‑based System (D-MOSS) has been developed which has potential to bring benefits to the fight against dengue. D-MOSS is the first fully integrated dengue fever forecasting system incorporating Earth Observation (EO) data and seasonal climate forecasts to issue warnings on a routine basis. D-MOSS integrates multiple stressors (such as water availability, land-cover, precipitation and temperature) with surveillance data on dengue cases and the UK Met Office’s GloSea5 seasonal climate forecast into a statistical model which produces probabilistic dengue fever forecasts from one to six months ahead. D-MOSS is now operational in Vietnam, and used by local agencies to plan and implement preventative actions. The system is also being introduced to three other countries in South and South East Asia.

Here, we describe the D-MOSS system and the benefits it can bring to support dengue prevention and control activities in the region through the provision of:

• probabilistic forecasts of dengue outbreaks on a monthly basis, up to seven months in advance;
• visualisation of forecast numbers of dengue cases, disease incidence, transmission months, probability of exceeding outbreak thresholds; and
• supporting information on recommended actions to be taken by decision makers.

The development of D-MOSS has been funded by the UK Space Agency’s International Partnership Programme.