Climate Change and Food-Energy-Water Systems in Arid Regions: Dynamics and Economics Simulated Using FEWCalc and DSSAT

Abstract:

FEWCalc (Food-Energy-Water Calculator) is a new freeware model that addresses the need for greater scientific and popular engagement to create a low-carbon economy. FEWCalc was developed to address multi-scale, multi-stakeholder food-energy-water problems from the perspective of local, non-technical stakeholders, and is novel in its ability to project farm incomes based on user-defined climate alternatives, water availability, crop selection and irrigation practices. FEWCalc allows users to consider economic diversification through investment in renewable energy production, thus allowing users to evaluate decision-based strengthening of rural economies under resource stress. FEWCalc’s agent-based model (ABM) architecture accepts user-specified inputs and integrates crop production and irrigation water demand from the model Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) with added arid-region dynamics.

Here, FEWCalc demonstrations for Garden City, Kansas, USA with 2008-2017 historical data and 2018-2099 projections using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios illustrate the dynamics of farm profitability and agricultural production. The simulations continue historical conditions and technologies, including (1) crop-price ranges, variability, and local-global interactions; (2) farm expenses, crop productivity, and a crop insurance program; (3) renewable-energy economics, technology and government incentives; and (4) groundwater-supported irrigation and constraints. Results suggest increasing challenges under climate change that include reduced crop yields and increased financial losses. In this region, increasing temperatures and changes in seasonal distribution of precipitation (rather than changes in mean annual precipitation), are the principal drivers of reduced crop yields. In the absence of effective technological advances and operational and policy changes, such communities will likely see declining agricultural production and local economies will need to increasingly depend on renewable energy production. The results thus define challenges facing new technologies and policies. Potential alternatives could be evaluated using FEWCalc.