PP009-0010
First results on simulated climate variability since the Last Glacial Maximum from experiments with simple, idealized and comprehensive climate models
First results on simulated climate variability since the Last Glacial Maximum from experiments with simple, idealized and comprehensive climate models
Tuesday, 8 December 2020
Poster
Abstract:
Climate variability represents a crucial component in our understanding of the climate system. However, it remains unclear whether climate models are capable of correctly simulating variability on centennial time scales and beyond. The impact of internal versus external variability, for example that induced by volcanic eruptions, especially requires further clarification.
Here, we examine changes in simulated global and regional temperature variability since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that occurred alongside an increase in global mean temperatures by several degrees. We compare results from experiments with climate models of different complexity, ranging from energy balance to comprehensive Earth System Models. We focus on the commonalities and differences that the models show in simulated variability — in particular with respect to radiative and transport processes and parameterizations included in the different models — and how they compare to paleoclimate records. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of different radiative forcings and their interactions on regional to global, and seasonal to multi-millennial temperature distributions. We assess the influence of volcanic forcing on temporal and spatial patterns in the models, for example by examining the different responses to eruptions at low versus high latitudes. Additionally, we examine feedbacks between volcanism and variability and how the modeled imprint of volcanic forcing changes from LGM, through the deglaciation, into the Holocene.
The results could point at a minimal complexity for the parameterization of climatic processes that is necessary and sufficient to better model the variability that is observed in paleoclimate proxy data.
Here, we examine changes in simulated global and regional temperature variability since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that occurred alongside an increase in global mean temperatures by several degrees. We compare results from experiments with climate models of different complexity, ranging from energy balance to comprehensive Earth System Models. We focus on the commonalities and differences that the models show in simulated variability — in particular with respect to radiative and transport processes and parameterizations included in the different models — and how they compare to paleoclimate records. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of different radiative forcings and their interactions on regional to global, and seasonal to multi-millennial temperature distributions. We assess the influence of volcanic forcing on temporal and spatial patterns in the models, for example by examining the different responses to eruptions at low versus high latitudes. Additionally, we examine feedbacks between volcanism and variability and how the modeled imprint of volcanic forcing changes from LGM, through the deglaciation, into the Holocene.
The results could point at a minimal complexity for the parameterization of climatic processes that is necessary and sufficient to better model the variability that is observed in paleoclimate proxy data.