Vulnerability of Russian Arctic Settlements to Risks Associated with Permafrost

Abstract:

More than 65% of Russia is located on permafrost. Rapidly changing climatic conditions resulted in increased rates of coastal erosion, thaw subsidence, thermokarst development and decreases of slope stability among others. On top of these climatically driven transformations of permafrost landscapes, human development and industrialization of the Russian Arctic further exacerbated rapidly changing environmental conditions making settlements vulnerable to risks associated with permafrost. To evaluate the exposure and risks of settlements on permafrost the extent, duration, probability of occurrence, and combined risk was assessed considering the following permafrost related processes: a) thermokarst, b) thermal erosion and thermal abrasion, c) frost heave, d) frost cracking, e) formation of icings, f) slope processes. The results show various types of exposures and risks of Russian Arctic settlements on permafrost. The combined risk was small for Anadyr, Nadym and Kharp, while cities of Igarka and Vorkuta have relatively high exposure. Bilibino and Norilsk were among the settlements having the highest overall exposure and risks associated with permafrost related processes considered in this study. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research project 18-05-600888 “Urban Arctic resilience in the context of climate change and socio-economic transformations”.