Synthesis of Arctic-Boreal region biogenic methane fluxes, model-data mismatch and knowledge gaps

Abstract:

Thawing permafrost has the potential to release large amounts of heat-trapping methane gas into the atmosphere, thereby accelerating global warming. Much work has been done to both observe and simulate current and potential future biogenic methane fluxes throughout the Arctic-Boreal region of North America. This study identifies key regions of methane emissions and uptake by combining available flux observations and a wide-ranging set of statistical and process-based models. We evaluate the simulated methane fluxes using atmospheric methane concentration observations coupled to an atmospheric transport model. This analysis allows us to investigate where, when and why models do and do not match the observations, which can guide the focus for future model improvements and the potential usefulness of additional observational constraints. Overall, this work will provide recommendations for future studies in this region, including insights into our level of understanding for various drivers of methane flux.