How wrong is the model and how can it still be useful?

Abstract:

The neutral wind dynamo is important for generating low-latitude ionospheric variability and space weather. During the daytime, the upward drift causes the plasma to rise, which then diffuses downward forming the characteristic equatorial ionization anomalies. Observations and modeling studies have indicated large variability of the plasma drift on time scales from days to seasons associated with the wind dynamo at low and middle latitudes. In addition, the neutral winds in the lower thermosphere is highly variable due to upward propagating tides and waves from the lower atmosphere. The relationship of the ionospheric drift variability to the neutral wind at different altitudes and regions is still not fully understood. The Ionospheric Connection explorer (ICON) mission is designed to focus on the low to middle latitude region and measures key parameters, such as the plasma drift and density and neutral temperatures and winds, to address the question of vertical coupling.

In this presentation, we will focus on the ICON observations and compare to general circulation model (GCM) results with the focus on determining what are “mice” and “tigers” depending on our goals. We will specifically focus on how models can support the interpretations of observations with respect to relating neutral wind variations to low latitude plasma drift changes. We will conclude with some thoughts on “useful” paths to advance modeling capabilities.