Examining adaptive migration thresholds in the context of rapid-onset climate hazards

Abstract:

The impacts of climate change are expected to spur widespread migration and displacement, with estimates predicting approximately 150 million climate migrants by 2050. Rapid-onset climate hazards like tropical cyclones drive abrupt changes in population movement. Though much research focuses on the specific environmental risks that may stimulate migration, less is known about the role of individual-level factors that contribute to the relocation decision-making process. In this study, we investigate how perceived hurricane threat severity, threat susceptibility, self-efficacy, and response efficacy contribute to individual push and pull motivations for migration, specifically, bother by major storm and flooding threat, and the appeal of relocating to an area of reduced threat exposure. We use a representative longitudinal sample of 1,846 Florida and Texas residents surveyed following Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Michael in September 2017, October 2017, October 2018, and before the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season (May 2020). We will complete an additional survey following a major (Category 3 or greater) landfalling hurricane this season. In addition, we examine the associations among place attachment, derived by length of residency and rootedness, and prior hurricane exposure – factors known to influence protective decision-making – and threat and coping appraisal to explore the psychosocial antecedents to migration behavior. This coupling of prior exposure and place attachment with threat and coping appraisal enables us to better characterize individual thresholds for migration in the context of acute environmental risks. Given the growing threat of climate-related hazards, we must better understand the role of perception and psychological factors in migration decision-making.