The AFT Solar Cycle 25 Predictions: A Retrospective Comparison with the Observations

Abstract:

The amplitude of the solar cycle has been shown to be well correlated with the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during the solar minimum that precedes it. For this reason, geomagnetic and polar field precursor methods have shown to be quite successful in making predictions of the solar cycle as it begins. Dynamo and Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models, which simulate the evolution of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field and the polar magnetic fields, offer the promise of extending this predictive capability several years in advance of the cycle minimum. The Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model, a cutting edge SFT model, has shown great promise at predicting the evolution of the polar fields. In 2016 and again in 2018, AFT was used to make predictions of the polar fields leading up to the solar minimum and thus the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. Now that solar minimum as been reached, we take a look back at these predictions and show how they compare with the observations. We will also provide an updated outlook for Solar Cycle 25 based on the latest observations.