Multi-Country Modeling of Sustainable Land-Use Futures for North America

Abstract:

Humanity faces key social and environmental challenges around land use, which will require transforming food systems, curbing greenhouse-gas emissions (GHGs), conserving and restoring biodiversity, and changing diets in order to achieve wellbeing within ecological limits. The 20-country Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-Use and Energy (FABLE) Consortium, coordinated by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), aims to meet both Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement by developing and assessing mid-century land-use scenarios related to demographic changes, economic growth, agricultural production, international trade, and diet and life-styles, and their influence on GHGs, biodiversity conservation, water consumption, and resilience of the food and land systems. Using a land use modeling tool, countries design national policy-driven scenarios to meet both SDGs and climate commitments at the national level and importantly, incorporate and balance international trade projections through a coordinated “scenathon”. We present the main results for North America (Mexico, USA, and Canada), which as a region represents a major trading bloc, in terms of policy levers and assumptions (e.g., agricultural production patterns, international trade) that are required to achieve SDGs and GHG targets by 2050. We find that no single policy or technological driver is sufficient for meeting mid-century GHG or land-use target, but rather a suite of ambitious changes across sectors will be required (e.g., reforestation, dietary preferences, crop and livestock productivity).