A179-0014
Projections of Future Flood Damages Associated with Atmospheric Rivers in the Western United States

Tuesday, 15 December 2020
Poster
Thomas Corringham, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, Tamara Shulgina, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States, Alexander Gershunov, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, Daniel R Cayan, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States and F Martin Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States
Abstract:
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the primary drivers of flood damages in the western United States. They are projected to increase in intensity with climate change, but their future costs have not yet been predicted.

40 years of flood damage data from the National Flood Insurance Program (1978 to 2018) over the western states of California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington are linked to a catalog of atmospheric rivers to develop a model of damages as a function of AR scale and latitude-specific storm total IVT. The model is then applied to 16 CMIP5 global climate models for which ARs can be detected, under the RCP8.5 scenario.

The model projections predict that direct economic flood damages in the westernmost United States due to ARs will more than double by the 2090s relative to the 1990s, holding spatial patterns of exposure and vulnerability constant. Increases in damages are projected to be most concentrated in the Sierra Nevadas, and at the border of Northern California and Southern Oregon. Rising population, and increased development in flood plains may further increase the impact.

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