Integration of climate forecast information into local-level decision-making using an agent-based model to support community adaptation in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract:

Accessibility to water resources is integral worldwide and variability can have profound impacts on social, political, and economic security. In regions with notable climate variability (e.g. seasonal and inter-annual variability in precipitation), seasonal climate forecasts issued in advance may enhance water resource planning and management decisions to benefit vulnerable communities. In the Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia, local-scale statistical, seasonal forecasts of rainy season precipitation have shown promise; yet, as the skill and capability of seasonal forecasts evolve, evidence of adoption by stakeholders remains minimal. We seek to understand how seasonal climate forecasts can be better developed, communicated, and integrated into local-level decision-making to support community resilience to climate variability. We explore possible pathways for communicating and integrating climate forecast information into local-level decision-making using an agent-based model, representative of a rural Ethiopian community. Multiple scenarios are developed, based on qualitative data and prior literature, to better understand the factors that influence community adoption. Specific attention to how climate sequences, heuristics, trust in the communicator, and social interactions impact patterns of adoption provides insight to the potential value of seasonal forecast for smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. Ultimately, management strategies that address climate variability for increased resilience in vulnerable regions are a critical step to long-term climate risk management. Our work bridges the disconnect between forecast development, communication, and integration to move towards greater use of seasonal climate predictions for societal benefit.