Carbon Mapper: global tracking of methane and CO2 point-sources

Abstract:

Efforts to mitigate methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are complicated by inconsistencies between estimates derived from atmospheric measurements, greenhouse gas inventories, and self-reporting programs. Contributing to these discrepancies are a relatively small number of industrial facilities that emit anomalously high amounts of greenhouse gases, often in an unpredictable and intermittent fashion. Field studies suggest that heavy-tail distributions in CH₄ emissions are common in most economic sectors, with point-sources contributing in some cases to 20-50% of a region’s total emissions. Other studies indicate similar behavior with CO₂ emissions sectors such as petroleum refineries and other industrial facilities. Meanwhile, nearly 60% of global CO₂ emissions from coal power plants occur in regions without stack-level emissions monitoring and reporting programs. Lack of transparency and monitoring costs are barriers to diagnosing and mitigating anomalous point-sources for geographically dispersed infrastructure. The uneven availability of accurate emissions data also represents a challenge to companies seeking to decarbonize their supply chains while remaining competitive in global markets.

We present the objectives, design and predicted performance of the Carbon Mapper program, a constellation of small satellites to make visible nearly 16 GtCO₂e/year from individual CH₄ and CO₂ emitting facilities around the world. Carbon Mapper is implemented as a public-private partnership that includes public data portals. A demonstration phase is planned for 2023 with 2 satellites that will characterize the global distribution of point-sources in high priority regions at 30m spatial resolution with visible-infrared imaging spectrometers. It will also pathfind future expansion to a larger satellite constellation capable of rapid tasking and daily sampling. We present prototype CH₄ and CO₂ point-source data from representative sectors and regions globally, using existing aircraft and satellite remote-sensing platforms, including examples of how measurements of point-sources can complement observations from coarser scale regional greenhouse gas sounders such as Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI, OCO-3, and future missions towards a more complete global CH₄ and CO₂ observing system.