Does sustainable agricultural intensification in the US exist? A data-driven exploration of the co-variability of US agriculture, environmental degradation, and socio-economic variables

Abstract:

Agriculture must make significant advances in using land and resources more efficiently if we are to reconcile the need for more food for an increasing global population with the need to preserve natural resources, safeguard natural habitats, and reduce climate change. The challenges in the United States’ (US) agricultural industry may present a window of opportunity to implement both radical and incremental innovations that enable transitions toward sustainability as well as eventual regime shifts. Current food production on large farms has led to arguments for the sustainable intensification of agriculture (SI). While frameworks exist for this concept, there are no systematic quantitative studies of SI within the US, despite a long history of intensified agriculture in the US. Our goal is to evaluate the co-variability of agricultural intensification, environmental degradation, and socio-economic indicators throughout the US in order to inform policy, conservation, and sustainable agriculture strategies. We will use first use cluster analysis to explore relationships between these variables across the US and then continue with advanced statistical models to further evaluate agricultural systems in the US. The outcomes provided by the project will enable agricultural industries to identify challenges and opportunities for innovation, and for policy makers and civil society to develop management options that support sustainable agriculture.