Estimated 2020 Emission Reductions from COVID-19 in Virginia

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented an unfortunate opportunity to observe how large-scale changes in human behavior can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study explores how COVID-19 has reduced annual 2020 CO₂ emissions at the state level in Virginia to inform smarter energy policies as the state recovers from the economic downfall. Electricity sales from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, energy demand from the mid-Atlantic U.S. Electric System Operating Data, and traffic volumes from the Virginia Department of Transportation were used to estimate activity changes in all five economic sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric power. Electricity sales and energy demand data were weather normalized. Emission savings were calculated by multiplying the percent change in activity from March through June for each sector by the percent of the year reduced activity occurred with the business-as-usual 2020 EPA CO₂ emission estimate for Virginia. Electricity sales from the residential and commercial sectors were similar to previous years with the same monthly temperatures. Thus, we assumed there were no changes in emissions due to COVID-19 in these two sectors. Virginia’s 2020 COVID-19 CO₂ emission reductions are estimated at -5.4% (-4.0 to -6.8%), with transportation accounting for 82% of the reduction. This study indicates that the transportation sector responds positively to behavioral changes and will require bold action by the state to implement sustainable policies to reduce its transportation emissions and better our well-being.