The food security risks in the face of extreme weather events: The wheat Brazilian case

Abstract:

Brazil is the fourth largest consumer of cereal grains in the world, and its grains production is not sufficient to meet the domestic demand. Since 2005, Brazil has annually imported 6 million tons of wheat, making it the second largest wheat importer of the world. The dependence on imported wheat makes the price of bread, one of the main foods in the Brazilian diet, highly dependent on dollar price variation. For example, during the coronavirus pandemic, the price of bread increased by 400% in some Brazilian regions exposing parts of the population to food insecurity. It is therefore important for Brazil to have a stable and increasing wheat production and being able to project the volume of wheat production before the harvest. Multiple regression models accounting for wheat season conditions were able to capture wheat area, yield and production losses since 2005. A combination of extreme weather events in 2006, caused wheat production in Brazil to decrease by 50%. Low planting incentives from low commodity prices before the cropping season and a drought during the main planting period reduced the wheat crop area in 2006 by 30%. And, frost damage in early spring destroyed about 15% of the wheat cropping area. In addition, drought during winter and low temperatures in early spring (during grain filling) reduced grain yields of the remaining crop by about 20%. Another drop in wheat production occurred in 2015 when it dropped by about 10% due to lower yields from excessive rainfall in July, followed by a severe drought in August. As temperature and rainfall is changing, such extreme impacts are likely to become more frequent. Understanding the impact and the frequency of large production losses will be critical to prepare for adapting to climate change in Brazil and elsewhere.