Global and Regional Drivers of Land-Use Emissions

Abstract:

Historically, human uses of land have transformed and fragmented natural habitat and ecosystems, degraded biodiversity, disrupted the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and added prodigious quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. Yet, in contrast to fossil fuel CO₂ emissions, the trends and drivers of GHG emissions from land management and land-use change (together, “land-use emissions”) have not been comprehensively and systematically assessed. Here, we present a comprehensive country-level inventory of land-use emissions over the period 1961-2017, decomposing the key drivers of emissions, and tracing these emissions via global trade networks. Despite steady increases in agricultural production and smaller increases in emissions per area of land used, decreases in land required per unit of agricultural production kept global annual land-use emissions relatively constant, with 14.6 Gt CO₂-eq emissions in 2017 (~25% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions). The three regions with the highest emissions (Latin America, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa) also lead global emissions growth between 1961 and 2017. About a quarter of global land-use emissions are traded internationally. Our detailed and systematic analyses of the drivers of land-use emissions can support efforts to reduce and manage these emissions in keeping with ambitious international climate goals.