Integrating Storytelling and a Coupled Socio-Economic and Environmental Models to Explore Interactions, Uncertainties and Vulnerabilities of Complex Human-Water Systems

Abstract:

Social, economic, and environmental implications due to anthropogenic activities are further challenging the sustainability of present methods and frameworks in water resources management. Potential future climate change and socio-economic conditions will pressure the quantity and quality of available water resources in many parts of the world. It is widely acknowledged that there is a need for frameworks that can capture the complex dynamics of society and the environment to help develop more sustainable water resources management strategies. In this research, through the use of storytelling methods, narrative storylines were developed to support a detailed and stakeholder-led description of plausible future scenarios in a watershed. Storylines were used to represent and communicate the interactions (and uncertainty) of the physical aspects of climate and socio-economic drivers in a human-water system. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework was used via storytelling approaches by considering the interaction of social and environmental drivers and impacts during participatory modeling with stakeholders and decision-makers. Participatory methods were used to gain knowledge from key stakeholders, including decision-makers, water managers, and community members. Finally, a coupled socio-hydrological dynamic model was developed and used for systematic scenario discovery to uncover vulnerabilities of possible futures, and test the performance of stakeholder proposed storylines. The proposed methodology was applied for the sustainable water resources management in the Rechna Doab watershed in Pakistan. Two main storylines including optimistic and pessimistic trajectories of future climate and socio-economic changes were determined based on stakeholder perspectives. The results show that, in addition to precipitation as an uncertain climate variable, irrigated area growth, crop intensity change and environmental consciousness are the most influential uncertain factors on water use intensity in the system. The results help support water resources policy making by identifying interactions, uncertainties, and vulnerabilities in the coupled socio-economic and hydrological system, which can help in determining appropriate and socially accepted strategies to address the problems identified by stakeholders.