Here's what 3oC looks like: Combining local observations, adaptations with western science in SW Alaska.

Abstract:

Arctic climate changes and impacts are occurring faster than at lower latitudes – 3^oC in four decades. For rural Alaska communities, these impacts require constant coping and adaptation now - in addition to anticipated responses. Agency funding for adaptation (direct responses, capacity), however, is often contingent on impacts assessments and adaptation plans. These in turn require documentation of current and expected climate changes and impacts where observations are sparse, short-term, or both. Since 2019, five communities in southwest Alaska worked independently and together to gather and better understand climate resources for their area. Here we describe an effort to tailor available western science climate and impacts information to community locations and resource concerns. To gain a better – and more useful – understanding of the impacts of these changes, we paired available western science with local observations. Through workshops and community meetings, we worked with them to document: 1) an area of climatic interest, 2) changes in subsistence practices, and 3) local observations of change over the past 50 years. In addition, we developed community atlases of climate changes (seasonal temperature, precipitation, snowpack, etc.) and impacts (vegetation/habitat, fires, permafrost, etc.) and watershed-level summaries, based on areas identified by community participants, that can be incorporated in impacts and risk assessments as well as adaptation plans. Subsistence activities have changed, including travel, timing, species loss/gain, and harvest quality. Other local observations include changes in weather, climate and permafrost that result in impacts on infrastructure, travel, food security, archaeological sites and purchasing decisions. We were also able to document critical community questions and data needs for community planning efforts. Here we describe the process of recording these observations and how the western science ‘numbers’ correspond to impacts as stated by local communities. Paired with local observations of current and historical changes, this combined information can serve as a foundation for the technical documentation required from communities for proposing new work and for accessing agency funding for adaptation efforts.