GH001-0001
A modelling study on climate changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Monday, 7 December 2020
Poster
Rumi Ohgaito1, Manabu Abe2, Akinori Ito1, Hideo Shiogama3, Hiroaki Tatebe4, Tomohiro Hajima4 and Michio Kawamiya1, (1)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (2)JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan, (3)National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, (4)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Yokohama, Japan
Abstract:
The global economy has been limited by the COVID-19 pandemic. Early confinements have reduced greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosol emissions by up to 20% in global average (Le Quere et al. 2020). More than half of the reduction of NOx was also observed in China, where regulations were strong (Wang and Su 2020, Shi and Brasseur 2020).
Preliminary experiments using MIROC-ES2L (Hajima et al. 2020) suggest that the confinement alone will not change the progress of global warming, but may have a temporal effect on the climate state.
Furthermore, with a view to potentially affecting the cumulative carbon emissions up to the 1.5°C and 2°C targets, numerical experiments using the MIROC-ES2L model will be shown. The experiments branch from SSP2-4.5 scenario and suppose several paths, such as the impact on GHGs and aerosols in 2020 and 2021 only, or a shift to green energy thereafter. We will present the differences between the future projections with and without the impact of COVID-19.