Safeguard global supply chains to protect food security during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract:

Global food security is under severe pressure, from COVID-19 impacts on agricultural supply chains and farm labor availability to the locust upsurge threatening local crop production and livelihoods. At the same time, stocks of the main staple foods are currently high, which tend to stabilize food systems. Under these contrasting conditions, we quantify the impacts of various threats to world food supply and prices for three major food crops: wheat, rice and maize. Our analysis suggests that local production declines have only moderate impacts on prices and supply. However, trade restrictions and precautionary purchases by only a few key exporting countries would be sufficient to create global food price spikes, with widespread disruptions in international supply chains. Thus, we believe a two-pronged approach is needed to protect food systems: a proactive strategy to maintain food availability and accessibility in food insecure regions and a concerted effort to enable continued exports from key food producers.