Using the VERB-4D code for forecasting Earth’s radiation belt and ring current electron dynamics

Abstract:

The response of the near-Earth space environment to geomagnetic storms can lead to elevated fluxes of energetic and relativistic electrons, which can have negative impact on the satellite infrastructure. To mitigate the potential damage, it is necessary to provide an accurate forecast of radiation belt and ring current electron fluxes. In this work, we present our recent results in applying the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB-4D) code to forecast the dynamics of radiation belts and ring current electrons. The VERB-4D code solves the modified Fokker-Planck equation with additional advection terms, which allows us to model electron drift in the inner magnetosphere, radial diffusion, and local loss and acceleration of the electrons. The use of data assimilation allows us to blend the code predictions with satellite data in an optimal way, correct errors associated with the uncertainties in the input parameters, and provide accurate initial conditions for the forecast. In this presentation, we compare the results of the VERB-4D code applied to several geomagnetic storms with historical satellite data, study the sensitivity of the code to the input parameters and models, and discuss the accuracy of the forecast.