Radiative effects of clouds and water vapor on an axisymmetric monsoon

Abstract:

Monsoons are summertime circulations shaping climates and societies across the tropics and subtropics. Here the radiative effects controlling an axisymmetric monsoon and its response to climate change are investigated using aquaplanet simulations. The influences of clouds, water vapor and CO₂ on the monsoon are decomposed using the radiation-locking technique. Seasonal variations in clouds and water vapor strongly modulate the monsoon, reducing net precipitation by approximately half. Warming and moistening of the axisymmetric monsoon by seasonal longwave cloud and water vapor effects are counteracted by a strong shortwave cloud effect. The shortwave cloud effect also expedites onset of the axisymmetric monsoon by approximately two weeks, whereas longwave cloud and water vapor effects delay onset. A conceptual model is derived and applied to link the timing of monsoon onset to surface cooling efficiency. In climate change simulations the CO₂ forcing and water vapor feedback have similar influences on the monsoon, warming the surface and moistening the region. In contrast, clouds have a negligible effect on surface temperature yet dominate the monsoon circulation response. A new perspective for understanding how cloud radiative effects shape the monsoon circulation response to climate change is introduced. The radiation-locking simulations and analyses advance understanding of how radiative processes influence an axisymmetric monsoon, and establish a framework for interpreting monsoon–radiation coupling in observations, in state-of-the-art models and in different climate states.