Evaluating the Remote Sensed-Based Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Vertical Pressure Velocity, and PM2.5 Contributions to the COVID-19 Fatality in the Arab World

Abstract:

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started in Wuhan City, China in December 2019. The transmission and spread of this virus are not fully known, however, there have been studies linking poor air quality indicators such as tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and Dust Surface Mass Concentration Particulate Matter (PM2.5) as possible contributors. The Arab League has 22 member countries and is home to almost 420 million people. The primary objective of this study is to assess the relationship between NO₂, PM2.5 & Vertical pressure velocity (VPV) (extracted from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) database), socio-economic factors (population and geographic area of each member country) and COVID-19 deaths using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Using the number of death cases taken from the World Health Organization as of July 28, 2020, the BMA model was used in predicting the total number of deaths using these variables. The results show that the posterior inclusion probability (PIP), which indicates the probability that a particular indicator is included in the best model, was 0.75, 0.77, 0.70, 0.50, and 0.33 for VPV, PM2.5, NO₂, population, and geographical area respectively, meaning that these variables are important contributors in predicting COVID-19 fatalities in the Arab League states. This study also shows that atmospheric satellite measurements from MERRA-2 datasets are capable of being used to quantify trace gases and aerosols in pandemic studies. Furthermore, the relatively high PIP for the three air quality indicators (VPV, PM2.5, NO₂) confirms the need for good air quality in stopping the spread of and deaths from this pandemic in this region and maybe throughout the world.