Integrated Approach to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation: Application to Fruit & Vegetable Supply Chains

Abstract:

Food systems are increasingly challenged to meet growing demand for specialty crops (including fruits and vegetables) due to the effects of climate change and increased competition for resources. We have developed a novel integrated methodology for studying food supply chains that includes climate, crop, economic, and life cycle assessment (LCA) models, and have now applied it two important plant-based sources of food in the US: processed potato and tomato. We assess the effectiveness of changing management strategies to address climate change and the opportunity to relocate away from regions with increased water scarcity. We find that supply chains for two popular processed products in the United States, French fries and pasta sauce, will be remarkably resilient, through planting adaptation strategies that avoid higher temperatures. Land and water footprints will decline over time due to higher yields, and GHG emissions can be mitigated by waste reduction and process modification. Our integrated methodology can be applied to other crops and geographies, and the results could inform decision-making at multiple steps along supply chains.