A057-01
Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Wednesday, 9 December 2020: 04:00
Virtual
Piers Forster, University of Leeds, Priestley International Centre for Climate, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, Corinne Le Quere, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom, Joeri Rogelj, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, Robin D Lamboll, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom, Christopher James Smith, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway, Christoph Keller, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Mathew J Evans, Wolfson Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratories, Department of Chemistry, University of York, York, United Kingdom and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Climate Analytics GmbH, Berlin, Germany
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. Here using national mobility data we estimate global emission reductions for 10 species over February-June 2020. We estimate global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by a ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate the direct effect of the pandemic driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario which follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid a future warming of 0.3°C by 2050.
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