Dry and moist dynamics shape regional patterns of extreme precipitation sensitivity

Abstract:

Responses of extreme precipitation to global warming are of great importance to society and ecosystems. Here, we apply Quasi-Geostrophic diagnostics on climate-model simulations to understand the changes in vertical motion, quantifying the roles of dry (large-scale adiabatic flow) and moist (small-scale convection) dynamics in shaping the regional patterns of extreme precipitation sensitivity (EPS). The dry component weakens in the subtropics but strengthens in the middle and high latitudes; the moist component accounts for the positive centers of EPS in the low latitudes and also contributes to the negative centers in the subtropics. A theoretical model depicts a nonlinear relationship between the diabatic heating feedback (alpha) and precipitable water, indicating high sensitivity of alpha (thus, EPS) over climatological moist regions. The model also captures the change of alpha due to competing effects of increases in precipitable water and dry static stability under global warming. Thus, the dry/moist decomposition provides a quantitive and intuitive explanation of the main regional features of EPS.