The Environmental Implications of Meeting Key Developmental Goals in India: A study of the synergies and tradeoffs involved in the housing, food, and transport sectors in urban India

Abstract:

Although India is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, much of its population still lacks steady access to basic necessities such as food, water, and shelter. India is a signatory to the 2015 Paris Agreement, and has ambitiously committed to a 33-35% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030. India, thus, faces the unenviable challenge of balancing its developmental goals (often GHG-intensive) with its climate targets.

In this project, we explore the synergies and trade-offs involved in meeting this challenge—along a 2050 time frame—using system dynamics modelling. Published literature often reports the energy and emissions implications of meeting individual developmental goals. However, the trade-offs and synergies collectively involved in meeting these goals are still relatively unexplored. The study will fill this gap by exploring the potentially counter-intuitive responses of urban–rural systems at the national level to changing policy landscapes and resource availability.

Based on the UN’s SDGs, India’s developmental priorities, and potential GHG impact, we shortlisted food, housing, and transport for all as goals to explore. Intrinsic to our model are the feedbacks that meeting these goals have on each other, as well as critical natural resources. This paper examines the dynamic interplay of changing mobility modal shares, meeting the housing shortage, increasing fuel blending with changing agricultural production, and the multifaceted impact of this interplay on land, groundwater, energy, and materials. It also compares the energy and material demands that various scenarios (such as business-as-usual, high/low-growth) would involve.

Built as a user input-based scenario-simulation tool, our model can examine the impacts of policy interventions and disruptive technologies in a year-on-year manner. It is, thus, a functional policymaking tool that will support decision-making in years to come.