A Green Energy Recovery After COVID-19 Pandemic Can Reduce Costs Of Climate Change Mitigation

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown measures in 2020 have had far-reaching effects on society, including the economy, lifestyles, and the energy system. Changes have led to immediate observable effects on air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. Some studies have already assessed the possible impact of initial lockdowns in Western societies on long term CO2 emission pathways to achieve the Paris agreement. However, the pandemic, followed by restriction measures, has spread to other regions in the World and it is likely to be an uncertain variable for the coming years.

Here we explore different pathways of persistence of Covid-induced behavioral change under broad economic uncertainty. Moreover, we show how some changes in energy demand (e.g. green mobility) presented during the COVID pandemic could be supported over the coming decades to allow a less-costly transition to low-carbon economy. Our results confirm the negligible impact of CO2 emission reduction due to COVID in early 2020 on long-term emission trajectories. However, different possible recovery pathways for the energy sector might imply up to 5% emission reduction on the long term. Finally, a low-carbon recovery after the pandemic shock could allow to achieve the 2°C global warming target by 2100 with lower mitigation costs and less intense use of negative emission technologies for the future.

This analysis focuses on behavioral change and energy demand. Energy supply measures, as stimulus packages, could and should also be discussed with a forward-looking insight on climate change mitigation.