Satellite Radiation Risks Forecasts in the UK

Abstract:

Recent studies show that if a major space weather event were to occur again then the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion. However, with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion. With more than 2,200 satellites on orbit forecasting radiation exposure to satellites forms a major part of this mitigation. Here we describe our work within the UK SWIMMR project. We show examples of events that pose a major risk to satellites. We describe the BAS Radiation Belt Model and how we use near real-time data from ground and space to drive the model. We present examples of the output which covers the entire outer radiation belt L=2-7 for the last 7 days and a forecast for the next 24 hours. We describe how plasma wave data is used to construct pitch angle and energy diffusion coefficients and recent work to develop new radial diffusion coefficients. We illustrate how machine learning methods are being incorporated into the forecasting system to improve the forecasting skill and how new belts formed due to rapid compressions of the geomagnetic field are being addressed by the GORGON MHD model.