Effects of Water Variability on Resilience and Migration Patterns in a Water-Subsidized System: a Modeling Study of a NW Costa Rica Basin

Abstract:

In this work, we build on a previously developed dynamical systems model of the Tempisque-Bebedero basin in Northwest Costa Rica to explore how variable water availability affects resilience in a highly-connected human-natural system. The Tempisque-Bebedero basin represents a type of water-subsidized system where interbasin water transfer connects the energy sector, irrigated agricultural sector, and important wetland habitat. The existing model is deterministic, incorporating ecohydrological and social variables into a dynamical system. Here we incorporate variable water input – an important consideration for a basin with both a highly managed water supply and an uncertain future with respect to climate change. Preliminary model analysis and results are presented and their implications on the system resilience and migration are discussed.