Indubitable and Dubious Climate Induced Migrations: An examination of the narratives, and key historical determinants

Abstract:

We face a spectre of mass migrations induced by climate change. Sea level rise may challenge the large coastal populations. Intensification and persistence of hurricane landfalls, floods and droughts may challenge food production and both agricultural and industrial supply chains. Heat waves may make some places uninhabitable in the summer. Correspondingly, there has been considerable examination and speculationof recent climate extremes as drivers of migration using statistical tools. Dire projections for climate induced migration are offered by many, and are featured in the popular media. In this talk, we tip toe through a selection of large-scale migration events in the modern era (e.g., the US Dust Bowl) that can be indubitably linked with a climate event or state, and ones where the connection is more complex or tenuous. We identify attributes of the situation, including governance, economic setting, policy and response measures, as well as of the populations (e.g., agrarian, industrial, mobility) that inform a conceptual mapping of potential migration response. Using this mapping, we identify the propensity of conditions that have the potential for climate or environmental factors to be the dominant causal factors driving mass migration.