Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates

Abstract:

Following the Paris Agreement, many countries are enacting targets to achieve net-zero emissions. Stringent mitigation will have clear societal benefits in the second half of this century by limiting peak warming and stabilizing climate. However, the near-term benefits of mitigation are generally thought to be less clear because forced surface temperature trends can be masked by internal variability. Here we use observationally-constrained projections from the latest comprehensive climate models and a simple climate model emulator, to show that pursuing stringent mitigation consistent with holding long-term warming below 1.5°C reduces the risk of unprecedented warming rates in the next 20 years by a factor of 11 compared to an "average" no mitigation scenario, even after accounting for internal variability. Therefore, in addition to long-term benefits, stringent mitigation offers substantial near-term benefits by offering societies and ecosystems a greater chance to adapt to the impacts of climate change.