GC077-04
Interdependence and emergence in the Sustainable Development Goals: A scenario assessment approach for modelling multi-sector futures

Friday, 11 December 2020: 07:12
Virtual
Anita Lazurko, School of Environment, Resources, and Sustainability; University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, Norman Kearney, School of Environment, Resources, and Sustainability; University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada, Jude Kurniawan, Department of Geography and Environmental Management; University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada, Vanessa J Schweizer, Department of Knowledge Integration; University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada and Natalya Siddhantakar, School of Environment, Enterprise, and Development; University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) aim to help countries achieve multiple objectives, but trade-offs and synergies within and between goals reveal that some goals are contingent on the achievement of others (OECD 2019; Spaiser et al. 2017). For example, climate adaptation depends on progress toward multiple goals including poverty reduction (Butler et al. 2016). This complexity reveals that sustainable development (SD) may not be achieved through linear progress toward discrete objectives - as implied by the SDG framework - but is rather an emergent property of co-evolving sectors. Organizations that fail to consider these interdependencies miss opportunities to pursue more transformative change.

How can we improve our understanding of systemic trade-offs and synergies in strategies for SD? We propose a scenario-based approach that can be applied to governments, foundations, and corporations to understand how SD strategies contribute to emergent progress toward the SDGs. We use Cross Impact Balances analysis to assess interactions among qualitative variables and search for internally consistent scenarios (Weimer-Jehle, 2006).

We demonstrate our approach using the case of IBM. IBM has made commitments to SDG 13 (Climate Action), 2 (Zero Hunger), 4 (Quality Education), 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), and 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) (USCIB, 2020). The results reveal only one scenario in which all of IBM’s initiatives make a positive contribution to the SDGs. In another, equally plausible scenario, none of IBM’s initiatives are successful. Six less-plausible scenarios show two to three initiatives having a positive contribution. Looking deeper to uncover trade-offs between initiatives related to SDG 13, we find that the success of IBM’s climate change adaptation initiatives hinges on goals that are absent in IBM’s SD strategy: SDGs 14 (Life Below Water) and 15 (Life on Land). Negative trends in these goals are sufficient to wipe out positive contributions from all other goals affecting SDG 13, suggesting that IBM’s climate adaptation initiatives could fail unless SDGs 14 & 15 are considered.

Our study demonstrates a novel approach for coping with interdependencies in human and natural systems. We believe that organizations can use tools like ours to pursue more strategic societal transformation.

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