A systemic Approach to Evaluate the Adaptation Strategies for Agricultural Water Demand Management in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions

Abstract:

Today, there is an urgent need for innovative ways to manage scarce water resources in response to the ever-rising demand for freshwater around the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In the MENA region, the agricultural sector is responsible for more than 90% of water usage, yet that is not enough to secure the food demands of the region. Looming serious domestic and transboundary water conflicts add more political and socioeconomic complexity to this highly unstable region. This research focuses on Iran as a case study to explore and identify adaptive agricultural water demand management strategies. Data from the country’s agricultural sector were used to develop five coherent, plausible, and systematically different agricultural water governance scenarios, through a participatory formative scenario construction approach. The first scenario models an extension of the status quo, while the other scenarios represent four different governance themes to manage agricultural water demand. Each scenario represents a different tradeoff between efficacy and sustainability depending on the values and interests the different stakeholder groups invested in agricultural water governance and water resource allocation. This study evaluates the anticipated impact of each scenario on ecosystem sustainability and on local socio-economic changes at the medium and long term. The results provide insights for policy makers on the range of impacts that structures of agricultural water governance and their subsequent decisions can have on water and food security, the economic resilience of local communities, and on ecological sustainability of key watersheds. These results can also facilitate communication between stakeholders in agricultural water demand management for collaborative, informed decision-making.