NH008-0008
Exploring fire behaviour pattern and recurrent weather scenarios using fire simulators in the Mediterranean area: the case of Apulia region (Italy)

Tuesday, 8 December 2020
Poster
Valentina Maria Bacciu, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Natural Ecosystems (IAFES), Sassari, Italy, José Maria Costa Saura, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Foundation, Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystems Services (IAFES), Sassari, Italy, Donatella Spano, University of Sassari, Department of Agriculture, Sassari, Italy and Costantino Sirca, University of Sassari; CMCC, Sassari, Italy
Abstract:
Spatial distribution of fire risk is of outmost importance to best allocate resources for fire management, including prevention and suppression. In this context, fire spread and growth models have been increasingly used in fire risk assessment. In general, the application of fire simulators is based on recurrent fire weather conditions and historical fire locations. However, outputs across simulators, albeit built upon the same algorithm, can change due to a number of elements thus affecting the potential risk indices that could be calculated and used by forest managers. Here, we integrate outputs from the traditionally used simulator FlamMap (Finney 1995) with the ultimate software WildFire Analyst (https://www.wildfireanalyst.com/) in order to assess fire risk in Apulia region (southern Italy) under recurrent fire weather conditions. Historical fire data (>100ha) from 2007-2017 and climate reanalysis at 9 km resolution (ERA5-Land) were used to identify historical fire weather scenarios and calculate burn probabilities (BP), fire potential index (FPI), flame length (FL), rate of spread (ROS), fire intensity (FI), fire size (FS) and Campbell analysis (CA). Five recurrent fire weather scenarios with different historical frequencies were identified using a cluster method that account for circular variables (i.e. wind direction). Only in one scenario (Maestrale) wind speed was close to 30 km h-1 but the number of historical fires under this scenario was the lowest. Instead, historical fires occur mostly in scenarios with relative humidity below 30% (Libeccio and Grecale). Forest fire simulators showed greater potential impacts under Maestrale, Levante and Lebeccio weather conditions. After weighting weather scenarios results suggest higher risks on northern and southern areas of the region. The results of this study can be used for fire and fuel management planning with the aim to reduce the risks posed by wildfires and can be replicated in other regions and countries.
<< Previous Abstract | Next Abstract >>