H111-0029
Representing Active Water Management within the National Water Model: Real-time Assimilation of Reservoir Releases from NWS River Forecast Centers

Friday, 11 December 2020
Poster
Mehdi Rezaeianzadeh, NOAA Affiliate, Lynker, NOAA/NWS Office of Water Prediction, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, David Mattern, NOAA Affiliate, Lynker Technologies, Office of Water Prediction, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, Nels J J Frazier, NOAA Affiliate, ERT Inc, Office of Water Prediction, National Water Center, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, Brian A. Cosgrove, NOAA/NWS/OHD, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Laura Read, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Yuqiong Liu, NOAA/NWS/OWP, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Jason A Regina, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, CPAESS, Boulder, CO, United States, Trey Flowers, NOAA/NWS Office of Water Prediction, National Water Center, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, Donald W Johnson, NOAA Affiliate, Tech Global, Office of Water Prediction, National Water Center, Analysis and Prediction Division, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, Zhengtao Cui, NOAA, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Sadiq Khan, NOAA/NWS National Water Center, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, Wanru Wu, NOAA/NWS/OHD-Hydrology Lab, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Fernando Renzo Salas, NOAA National Weather Service, Office of Water Prediction, Geo-Intelligence Division, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States and Graeme R Aggett, Lynker Technologies, Leesburg, VA, United States
Abstract:
Reservoir operation is a complex human-controlled activity that substantially alters surface hydrology. The upcoming National Water Model (NWM) version 2.1 includes representation of 5,783 lakes and reservoirs to help improve streamflow simulations and forecasts over the entire continental United States and its contributing basins. The current NWM uses level pool routing to simulate and forecast flows below managed systems. Level pool routing is a simplified method that does not accurately represent complex reservoir dynamics. In this study, real-time assimilation of observed and forecasted reservoir releases from NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs) was proposed to improve the model’s skills for the operational NWM version 2.1. RFC-supplied reservoir forecast data come either directly from their reservoir models or their partners at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, and other state and local partners. The RFC-supplied data are first interpolated to an hourly time step and then ingested into the NWM without the application of mass balance constraints. This approach was tested and evaluated for implementation within the NWM short-range and medium-range forecast cycles (SRF and MRF). This simple, but efficient, data assimilation approach proved to outperform the current level pool representation of the reservoirs within NWM SRF and MRF cycles at the selected reservoirs. Improvements were noticeable for all lead times within the SRF and the first six days within the MRF cycles. An on-going activity is to implement this approach within the long-range Analysis and Assimilation cycle to generate a more accurate initial condition for the corresponding NWM long-range forecast cycles. In addition, by working with RFCs, another effort will be made to expand on the number of reservoirs working with this approach for the next version, the operational NWM v3.0.
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