A Physics-based Prediction of Solar Cycle 25 and Reconstruction of Century-Scale Solar Activity

Abstract:

The activity of the Sun generates space weather and forces the atmosphere and climate of planets. The basis of this dynamic solar activity is its magnetic cycle, which is manifest in variations of sunspots observed on the solar surface. These sunspots are generated by complex interactions of plasma flows and magnetic fields in the solar interior via the magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism. While predictions of the future state of the solar cycle, including its strength and timing are critical to space weather awareness and mitigation strategies, making accurate physical model based predictions remain a challenging task. In this talk, I shall discuss the advances made in understanding the physics of solar cycle predictions in the last decade. I shall also discuss a prediction of the strength and timing of solar cycle 25 which is based on a methodology of coupling a surface flux transport model to a solar dynamo model; this methodology explains well the last century of solar activity and provides new insights in to the inner workings of the solar dynamo mechanism.