Flood-Health Vulnerability and Predictability of Observed Flood Impacts using Flood Forecast and Satellite Inundation in Bangladesh

Abstract:

Floods are the most frequent and damaging natural disaster in Bangladesh, and the effects of floods on public health have increased significantly in recent decades, especially among people with lower socio-economic status. Although the assessment of social vulnerability on the flood-induced health concerns has been investigated, a notable gap still remains to promote large-scale disaster management practices. In this study, the socio-economic, health, and coping capacity domain vulnerability (DV) and composite flood-health vulnerability (FHV) are assessed using equal-weight and PCA methods with 26 related indicators for the entire Bangladesh. Results show that vulnerable zones (FHV ≥ 0.6) appear around the northwest riverine areas, northeast floodplains, and southwest region with 42 million people (26% of total population). The established vulnerabilities are then linked to flood forecast and satellite inundation to evaluate the predictability of the observed flood impact indices (distress, damage, disruption, and health) aggregated from the 2017 August post-flood reports. Aa a result, the forecast-based equally weighted vulnerabilities show the best performances. Especially, socio-economic and coping capacity DVs represent well the distress, disruption, and health impacts records. Also, the forecast-based FHV index presents significant relationships with all impact indices, demonstrating its usefulness in identifying comprehensively vulnerable regions. Overall, the findings suggest the capability of this approach to assess both thematic and comprehensive spatial vulnerabilities for supporting targeted and coordinated public disaster management and health practices.