Exploring the dynamics of the Dead-Sea Transform fault using data-integrated numerical models

Abstract:

The Dead-Sea Transform fault system, a 1200 km-long strike-slip fault forming the tectonic boundary between the African Plate and the Arabian Plate, poses a major seismic hazard to the eastern Mediterranean region. An a-priori exhaustive 2000 years records of large earthquakes along these faults, from the combined data of historical records and geological studies, suggest that devastating earthquakes may cluster in time. Previous logic-tree analysis of geologic slip rates (Chartier et al., 2019) revealed the same fault system may also host unusually large events, dynamically breaking multiple segments. Both, clustering in time and unusually large earthquakes may affect the regional seismic hazard.

We here explore the dynamics of the Dead-Sea Transform fault system using earthquake cycle modeling, calibrated by the exceptionally rich paleo-seismological records. We also explore the dynamics of chosen events of the simulated earthquake sequence which resemble historical events. We inform 3D dynamic rupture modeling, in terms of initial loading, by the seismic-cycle modeling. Overall, we aim to better understand how large earthquakes may nucleate, propagate, and interact across a complex transform fault network. Our findings, e.g. on fault segmentation or the conditions that promote giant earthquakes, will have important implications for other large strike-slip fault systems worldwide.