GC061-0009
Hydro-economic analysis of infrastructure investment options within the Water-Energy-Food nexus in the Niger River basin

Thursday, 10 December 2020
Poster
Fantine Hureau1, Peter Bauer-Gottwein2, Raphaël Payet-Burin2,3 and Silvio Pereira-Cardenal3, (1)Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark, (2)Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Copenhagen, Denmark, (3)COWI A/S, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Abstract:
The Niger transboundary river basin, hosting over 130 million people in nine countries, is facing pressures driven by a growing number of water users, socio-economic development and climate change.

In this study, we intend to adopt a holistic representation of the Water-Energy-Food nexus interrelations and we use an innovative hydro-economic optimization approach based on a single economic objective function to model water allocation. We aim to assess the impacts of infrastructure development at basin and country scales both in terms of cost-efficiency and water availability. We investigate whether there are any trade-offs or synergies between investment plans. We also evaluate the combined impacts of a drier climate and infrastructure on the Niger Inner Delta floodplain.

We consider the Irrigation Plan which is an expansion of irrigated area all over the basin, and the Hydropower Plan which includes the three dams of Fomi, Taoussa and Kandadji. We perform the study case using the WHAT-IF (Water Hydropower Agriculture Tool for Investment and Financing) model. We set up linear reservoir model of the Inner Delta and we investigate the extent of the flooded area under 25 scenarios combining 5 scenarios of irrigation expansion and 5 climate scenarios (-10% to -30% runoff).

We find that investment plans would generate important agricultural benefits for Nigeria and Mali. They would result in a total hydropower benefit of 50 M$/year in Guinea, Mali and Niger but a loss of 5 M$/year in Nigeria. This is due to a reduction of inflow into hydropower production units in Nigeria because of increased upstream water abstractions and evaporation. We do not identify other significant trade-offs between the two investment plans. We conclude that climate change is the main driver affecting the flooded area in the Inner Delta. A massive expansion of irrigation also affects the area especially if combined with a drier climate.

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