Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Predictability Rebounds

Abstract:

We present how rebounds in the predictability of seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts change across 21 regions covering the entire globe from 16 models with the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) system. We show that the patterns vary across different regions. Rebounds in precipitation forecast predictability are associated with dominant wet seasons, while summer time shows most of the temperature rebounds. The strength of the rebounds is higher at lower latitude regions, and vice versa. Temperature forecasts how stronger rebounds as compared to precipitation. We will discuss some of the ongoing efforts and future plans.