GC076-06
Global Agriculture: Variety Adaptation Potentials and Limitations
Friday, 11 December 2020: 05:45
Virtual
Florian Zabel1, Christoph Müller2, Joshua Wright Elliott3, Sara Minoli2, Jonas Jägermeyr4,5, Julia M. Schneider6, James A Franke7, Christian Folberth8, Louis M Francois9, Wenfeng Liu10, Thomas Pugh11, Stefan Olin12, Tobias B Hank13, Wolfram Mauser14 and Alexander C Ruane5, (1)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany, (2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (3)University of Chicago, Department of Computer Science, Chicago, IL, United States, (4)University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (6)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany, (7)University Of Chicago, epartment of the Geophysical Sciences, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), Chicago, IL, United States, (8)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (9)University of Liège, Liège, Belgium, (10)EAWAG Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland, (11)University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, Birmingham, B15, United Kingdom, (12)Lund University, Department of physical geography and ecosystem science, Lund, Sweden, (13)LMU Munich, Munich, Germany, (14)Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Department of Geography, Munich, Germany
Abstract:
By how much agriculture can adapt to climate change still is an open question. Variety selection is one measure that allows farmers choosing varieties best adapted to local climate conditions. A broad range of varieties for agricultural crops exist, of which each variety is adapted to specific abiotic conditions. Utilizing this pool of genetic variability to adapt to climate change however has not been considered in global crop model and food security studies so far.
In a global multi-model sensitivity analysis within the Global Gridded Crop Model Initiative (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), we systematically investigate the combined effects of environmental changes on yields for best temperature adapted varieties. We show results of potential variety adaptation effects on global production for the major staple crops (maize, wheat, rice and soybean) and for the CMIP6 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3,7.0 and SSP5-8.5.
Variety adaptation could potentially overcompensate climate change induced yield losses. For SSP5-8.5, the simulation ensemble, consisting of 7 crop models and 5 climate models, shows that global staple crop production is in average 25 percentage points higher than without variety adaptation. Thereby, variety adaptation was not effective in all regions. Water deficit regions e.g. could not benefit by adapted varieties due to dominant water stress. We further empirically estimate the distribution of existing varieties, based on their growing degree days (GDD). Using adapted varieties from the existing gene pool, we found that variety adaptation may not be possible on more than 35% of global harvested area in SSP5-8.5, due to non-existing adapted varieties. Thereby, soy has the highest risk of having no adapted variety available on approximately 70% of global harvested area.
This highlights the importance of international breeding programs. Future research is needed in order to consult and support breeders in terms of what crop properties are required for future climate conditions.
