H132-02
Incorporating Climate Change Into Intensity-Duration-Frequency Value for the United States

Monday, 14 December 2020: 04:04
Virtual
Kenneth Kunkel1, Thomas Richard Karl2, David R Easterling3, Xungang Yin4, Liqiang Sun5, James Clark Biard6, Scott E Stevens6, Laura E Stevens7 and Sarah M Champion8, (1)North Carolina State University Raleigh, North Carolina Institute for Climate and Satellites, Raleigh, NC, United States, (2)Climate and Weather, L.L.C., Asheville, NC, United States, (3)NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, United States, (4)ERT, Inc., Asheville, NC, United States, (5)North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC, United States, (6)North Carolina State University, North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, Asheville, NC, United States, (7)Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - North Carolina (CICS-NC), Asheville, NC, United States, (8)North Carolina State University, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies, Leicester, NC, United States
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
A new approach to incorporate potential future anthropogenically-forced changes in climate into Intensity-Duration-Frequency values will be described. We utilize recent scientific findings regarding the meteorology causing extreme precipitation events. This includes (1) the quantitative effects of water vapor (precipitable water) on extreme precipitation amounts; and (2) the relative roles of various weather systems as the meteorological causes of these events. Global climate model simulations provide estimates of future changes in these meteorological variables under various levels of anthropogenic forcing. These projected changes are expressed as adjustments to the NOAA Atlas-14 values that were developed under the assumption of climate stationarity. A second set of estimated future changes is developed using the traditional method of GEV analysis applied to the LOCA statistically-downscaled dataset. These independent estimates are used to estimate uncertainties in the estimated adjustments. The first set of estimates, based on water vapor and weather system changes, not only provides a scientifically-based data set, but it provides a meteorological interpretation of the changes.
<< Previous Abstract | Next Abstract >>