Ensuring long-term reliability of urban water resources systems under climate change and natural disasters for the city of Quito, Ecuador

Abstract:

Latin America is urbanizing at a fast pace. Urban expansion can create better opportunities for people but poses risks to urban water managers. Quito, a rapidly expanding system, faces complex and multifaceted challenges that are magnified by climate change. These challenges require robust long-term solutions, adaptable to emerging risks and changing conditions. The main objective of this study is to find robust infrastructure development solutions to ensure Quito’s long-term drinking water supply. The process is centered around the Robust Decision Support (RDS) methodology, which begins with a Problem Formulation Workshop where EPMAPS (Empresa Pública Metropolitana de Agua Potable y Saneamiento de Quito, the main drinking water utility), FONAG (Fondo para la Protección del Agua) and other actors identified challenges and plausible solutions along with metrics that determine a successful performance of the system. Throughout the analysis process, stakeholders can identify, prioritize, and plan a portfolio of medium and long-term planning investment options. The selected strategies inform the city’s new master plan which includes management actions for long-term climate adaptation planning. Our analysis reveals that the greatest concerns for the city of Quito are climate change related to extreme events (drought and flooding), glacial melting, and threats to the páramo area. Urban expansion is also a challenge, along with agricultural expansion, volcanic and telluric risks. The selection of a portfolio of adaptation options can help facing these challenges to maintain and ensure future urban water supply, ecological flows, and to protect páramo areas. The infrastructure development options are evaluated to ensure that in the next 20 to 50 years the potable water supply system can be resilient to climate change and natural disasters. Our study of Quito is an illustration of the global trend of urbanization happening in Latin America, but also in other parts of the world. With an expected increase in population in the next years, ensuring safe drinking water for all is a major challenge with COVID-19 conditions. This study emphasizes the importance of identifying a portfolio of alternatives under a stakeholder engagement process to ensure that these strategies are robust under future and uncertain conditions.