Volcanology 2030: Will an orbital volcano observatory finally become a reality?

Abstract:

Twenty years ago at this session we discussed the coming decade when the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) with its new sensors and integrated payloads was coming online with the launches of the Terra (1999), Aqua (2002), and Aura (2004) satellites. There were high expectations for spaceborne volcanology, despite none of the sensors being designed specifically for volcanological science. Ten years later at this session, we focused on the data that came from those sensors and their added value to high-profile eruptions such as Mt. Etna (2001), Mt. St. Helens (2004), Merapi (2006), and Eyjafjallajökull (2010). We also looked forward to 2020 and the promise of integrated networks of ground and orbital instruments operating in sensor webs to improve near real-time data collection critical for eruption forecasting and response. Looking back now, these sensors did provide a long-term record of volcanic activity. Most are well past their design lifetime, however, and planned new missions do not have the diversity of measurements nor the varied set of observations of EOS. In 2010, we noted, “The prospects for accurate volcanology from space in 2020 are therefore less clear even as the need for such observations has never been more important,” which arguably proved true. Recent community-driven documents such as the NASA CORE Report and the National Academy’s Decadal Survey have specific goals for understanding volcanic systems, their precursory activity, and their hazards. Plans are now being developed for a new sequence of sensors that will address some of the important Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) questions raised in the Decadal Survey, including volcanic hazards. However, what is required for a step-change in spaceborne volcanology is a dedicated mission focused specifically on the science: an orbital volcano observatory. If we are to move forward, such a system needs to acquire hypertemporal data with much-improved spectral and spatial resolutions, so as to produce the information needed for analysis of the ongoing dynamic processes such as mass and thermal flux rates feeding volcanic plumes, flows, and hydrothermal systems. Such a mission is currently being proposed and, if successful, would see data and science return towards the end of this decade; hopefully in time to report at this session in 2030.