Coronal Prediction for the December 14, 2020 Total Solar Eclipse

Abstract:

During a total solar eclipse, coronal structures may be traced uninterrupted from the solar surface to several solar radii. For this reason, eclipses present the perfect opportunity to benchmark, refine, and improve coronal models through careful comparison to observations. Continuing our two decade tradition, we will use a thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona to predict the appearance of the December 14, 2020 total solar eclipse. The model incorporates non-ideal thermodynamic transport terms and employs a wave-turbulence-driven (WTD) description of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. The key observational inputs to the model are measurements of the photospheric magnetic field and estimates of the location and helicity of shear at non-potential filament channels. This will also be our first eclipse prediction that employs a two temperature (electron and ion) treatment for the energy equation. Our final prediction model will be completed just prior to this presentation, and we will develop a variety of diagnostics and forward modeled data products for comparison, including images of the K-corona brightness, polarized brightness, and EUV/X-ray emission. We will discuss the prediction model as well as our benchmarking effort leading up to the eclipse, which involves the careful preparation of boundary conditions and vetting the model setup against current remote-sensing and in situ measurements. We will also discuss how new types of observables and/or measurement capabilities may be used as independent model constraints. A dedicated webpage for the prediction effort will be made permanently available at (www.predsci.com/eclipse2020).