GH023-05
Environmental Stressors Can Intensify the Impacts of Pandemics on Earth's Natural Resources and Global Food Systems

Wednesday, 16 December 2020: 08:50
Virtual
Iman Haqiqi1, Danielle S Grogan2, Marziyeh Bahalou Horeh3, Thomas W Hertel1, Jing Liu4 and Uris Lantz C Baldos1, (1)Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States, (2)University of New Hampshire, Earth Systems Research Center, Durham, NH, United States, (3)West Virginia University, Division of Resource Economics and Management, Morgantown, United States, (4)Purdue University, West Lafayette, United States
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
This study is motivated by the impacts of COVID-19 on the global economy and local air pollution. It estimates the likely impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic when combined with environmental stressors. Here, we investigate the global impacts of economic lockdowns combined with fine-scale heat stress and water scarcity on food systems. We identify the conditions under which a combination of economic recession and drought conditions leads to intensified food insecurity. We also identify which regions are more influenced by other regions through changes in the international trade of food, food loss, and food waste.

We integrate SIMPLE-G (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment) with WBM (Water Balance Model). We look at the likely impacts of an economic recession combined with projected changes in water resources. The SIMPLE-G model provides food security and caloric nutrition outcomes. It also determines the irrigation water demand at each grid cell. The prices of crops, livestock, and processed food commodities are determined considering international trade of agricultural products. In an interconnected world, water-scarce regions are expected to import water-intensive commodities from relatively water-abundant regions. However, the degree of scarcity depends on availability relative to demand. We consider the changes in water supply relative to the changes in water demand in case of water scarcity combined with recession economic conditions.

The results from alternative scenarios will illustrate the significance of a pandemic combined with environmental stresses. We will identify the hotspots of change in food security. Also, we will learn about which local parameters and biophysical conditions are most important in limiting the adaptation options at each grid-cell. The results of this study will highlight mechanisms by which the resilience of global and regional food systems can be enhanced.

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